The Latest Poll Shows: It's a Recession!

photo by marshlight

President George W. Bush is famous for saying he doesn't pay attention to public opinion polls.

Many reasonable people think that this is arrogant – democratically elected leaders should not flout the will of the people who elect them, critics say.

But perhaps there is some wisdom in Bush's policy against reading polls.

What I'm getting at is: Most people just don't know that much stuff, and polls must reflect that. That is, in many cases, polls are asking people about things they simply don't know very well.

Imagine if a pollster called you and asked, "Is the economy headed for a recession?"

You're smart, sure, but do you know what a recession is? Troll your memory for a second. Formulate a guess.

Going by that most reputable of all sources, Wikipedia, a recession is defined in two ways.

Economists say: "A recession is a decline in a country's real gross domestic product, or negative real economic growth, for two or more successive quarters of a year."

The National Bureau of Economic Research says: "A recession is a significant decline in economic activity spread across the economy, lasting more than a few months, normally visible in real GDP, real income, employment, industrial production, and wholesale-retail sales. A recession begins just after the economy reaches a peak of activity and ends as the economy reaches its trough."

Did you guess right?

Knowing whether the American economy is in recession requires knowledge of the definition of "recession," as well as the directions of GDP, and perhaps income, employment, industrial production, and wholesale-retail sales.

Knowing whether the economy is headed for recession requires all that, plus advance knowledge of what will happen in the future.

So you'll excuse my skepticism when I see a poll that announces, "Majority of Americans expect a recession." I don't think the majority of Americans even know what a recession is, let alone whether one is on the horizon.

There are many things that the majority of Americans are expert on: how to speak English, whether they are happy, and whether they like their cars and houses, for instance.

But when a pollster calls and asks the majority of Americans a bunch of questions that baffle economists, we ought not to grant the results much credence.

The Things That Matter

photograph by slimmer_jimmer

Philosophers and scientists agree: there are two ways to prove a claim.

The first is to eliminate all possible other options.

As such, the Things that Matter is not a music blog. It is also not a blog for worship of the Democratic Party platform.

It is not a blog about what bag Paris Hilton is carrying. It is not a blog about what I ate for lunch.

It is not a blog that reeks with naked pretension. It is not a blog that weeps with hyper-sincerity.

It is not a blog aimed at the largest possible audience. It is not a blog written to maximize profit and minimize costs.

It is not a blog that is supposed to ingrain itself into the coveted 18-to-34 demographic. It is not a blog that is supposed to capture the imaginations of a generation.

That is not to say that any of those things are bad per se. But there are many voices shouting at those ears.

The second is to show what it is.

The Things That Matter is a project that my friends, acquaintances and I are undertaking.

We are of the opinion that we have creative and interesting insights into the fascinating environment in which we live. We hold many things dear: politics and policy, culture and art, science and philosophy, sports and media, ethics and economics.

We care deeply about these things and many others. We spend our waking hours analyzing them, in blogs, in conversations, in our internal monologues. By any account, we could be using this time in more profitable ways. But we can't help but feel that these things are very important and that they deserve our attention.

As a result of our intellectual devotion, we often come up with creative insights we wish to share. Thus arose this blog.

We are not especially qualified pundits, though many of us have served, are serving, or wish to serve as analysts, authors, journalists, and other organizers of information. No, we are just people who value intelligent commentary and think that we have voices that will add value to an enormous, open-ended conversation – a conversation about The Things That Matter.