President George W. Bush is famous for saying he doesn't pay attention to public opinion polls.
Many reasonable people think that this is arrogant – democratically elected leaders should not flout the will of the people who elect them, critics say.
But perhaps there is some wisdom in Bush's policy against reading polls.
What I'm getting at is: Most people just don't know that much stuff, and polls must reflect that. That is, in many cases, polls are asking people about things they simply don't know very well.
Imagine if a pollster called you and asked, "Is the economy headed for a recession?"
You're smart, sure, but do you know what a recession is? Troll your memory for a second. Formulate a guess.
Going by that most reputable of all sources, Wikipedia, a recession is defined in two ways.
Economists say: "A recession is a decline in a country's real gross domestic product, or negative real economic growth, for two or more successive quarters of a year."
The National Bureau of Economic Research says: "A recession is a significant decline in economic activity spread across the economy, lasting more than a few months, normally visible in real GDP, real income, employment, industrial production, and wholesale-retail sales. A recession begins just after the economy reaches a peak of activity and ends as the economy reaches its trough."
Did you guess right?
Knowing whether the American economy is in recession requires knowledge of the definition of "recession," as well as the directions of GDP, and perhaps income, employment, industrial production, and wholesale-retail sales.
Knowing whether the economy is headed for recession requires all that, plus advance knowledge of what will happen in the future.
So you'll excuse my skepticism when I see a poll that announces, "Majority of Americans expect a recession." I don't think the majority of Americans even know what a recession is, let alone whether one is on the horizon.
There are many things that the majority of Americans are expert on: how to speak English, whether they are happy, and whether they like their cars and houses, for instance.
But when a pollster calls and asks the majority of Americans a bunch of questions that baffle economists, we ought not to grant the results much credence.
Many reasonable people think that this is arrogant – democratically elected leaders should not flout the will of the people who elect them, critics say.
But perhaps there is some wisdom in Bush's policy against reading polls.
What I'm getting at is: Most people just don't know that much stuff, and polls must reflect that. That is, in many cases, polls are asking people about things they simply don't know very well.
Imagine if a pollster called you and asked, "Is the economy headed for a recession?"
You're smart, sure, but do you know what a recession is? Troll your memory for a second. Formulate a guess.
Going by that most reputable of all sources, Wikipedia, a recession is defined in two ways.
Economists say: "A recession is a decline in a country's real gross domestic product, or negative real economic growth, for two or more successive quarters of a year."
The National Bureau of Economic Research says: "A recession is a significant decline in economic activity spread across the economy, lasting more than a few months, normally visible in real GDP, real income, employment, industrial production, and wholesale-retail sales. A recession begins just after the economy reaches a peak of activity and ends as the economy reaches its trough."
Did you guess right?
Knowing whether the American economy is in recession requires knowledge of the definition of "recession," as well as the directions of GDP, and perhaps income, employment, industrial production, and wholesale-retail sales.
Knowing whether the economy is headed for recession requires all that, plus advance knowledge of what will happen in the future.
So you'll excuse my skepticism when I see a poll that announces, "Majority of Americans expect a recession." I don't think the majority of Americans even know what a recession is, let alone whether one is on the horizon.
There are many things that the majority of Americans are expert on: how to speak English, whether they are happy, and whether they like their cars and houses, for instance.
2 comments:
Granted. But polls are a good way to see what the public is concerned about, which any democratically elected leader should give some thought. You can't be ruled by polls - people ware way too indecisive and, as you said, they don't always know what will really help in any given situation - but they should be kept in mind.
I think Greg's saying pollsters are asking us the wrong questions. This baffles me, too, because it seems like they're usually asking questions like this to gauge consumer confidence- not to predict the future.
They ought to ask people if they have changed their spending habits or if they are considering changing their spending habits. Something a little more direct to get at whatever they're getting at.
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